The decline in exports has made the UK economy worse

2012-08-12 「 3565 words / 7 minute 」
The decline in exports has made the UK economy worse.jpg
news
第二季度英国出口大幅下滑,突显全球经济增长放缓背景下英国经济复苏所面临的困境。
Britain's exports fell sharply in the second quarter, highlighting the difficulty the UK economy faces as it tries to recover amid slowing global growth.
商品出口额大幅下降3.1%,英国出现至少15年来最大的贸易赤字。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)经济学家戴维•廷斯利(David Tinsley)认为英国出口数据"极其糟糕"。
Goods exports fell 3.1 per cent in volume terms as the UK recorded its biggest trade deficit in at least 15 years. David Tinsley, economist at BNP Paribas, described the data as "spectacularly bad".
陷入危机的欧元区占英国出口的40%,而美国以及中国等新兴市场的增长放缓则让形势更加严峻。
The crisis in the eurozone, the destination of about 40 per cent of the UK's exports, has been compounded by slowing growth in the US and emerging markets such as China.
汇丰银行(HSBC)经济学家John Zhu指出,第一季度至第二季度,英国对其最大十个出口市场的出口均出现下降。
Exports to all of the UK's 10 biggest export markets fell between the first and second quarters of the year, according to John Zhu, an economist at HSBC.
Oriel Securities经济学家达伦•温德尔(Darren Winder)说:"整体形势依然非常艰难。一直以来,政府的目标之一就是恢复经济平衡,但如果外部需求疲软,正如英国目前所面临的,那么就非常困难了。"
"The big picture is this is still very much a slog," said Darren Winder, an economist at Oriel Securities. "One of the government's objectives has long been to try to rebalance the economy [but] if you've got weak external demand conditions, which we have, then it becomes very difficult."
这些贸易数据发布之前,英国央行(Bank of England)曾对英国经济前景做出悲观的预测,英国央行已经放弃长久以来的观点,即英国经济将在两年之内恢复到正常增长率。2010年年中以来英国经济一直没有增长,目前正处于双底衰退中。
The trade data follow a gloomy assessment of the UK's prospects from the Bank of England, which has abandoned its long-held belief that the economy would spring back to normal growth rates within two years. The economy has not grown since mid-2010 and is now in a double-dip recession.
5月至6月,英国对欧洲以外国家的出口下降8.6%,更为糟糕的是,对中国汽车出口下降幅度超过了对欧洲出口6%的降幅。
Exports to countries outside Europe fell 8.6 per cent between May and June, exacerbated by lower car exports to China, which outstripped the 6 per cent fall in exports to Europe.
英国国家统计局(Office for National Statistics)警示,月度数据浮动较大也经常修改,可能受到了6月份女王登基60周年庆典银行额外假期的影响。
The Office for National Statistics warned that the monthly data, which are volatile and often revised, were probably affected by the extra bank holiday in June for the Queen's diamond jubilee.
加拿大皇家银行(RBC)经济学家延斯•拉森(Jens Larsen)认为,也有一些积极的信号。"进口非常稳定,这或许证明国内经济并不是很糟糕。如果进口也大幅下降,就非常值得担忧了。"
Jens Larsen, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, said there were some positive signals. "Imports have been pretty steady, perhaps suggesting that the domestic economy is not doing so badly. If imports were crashing too, I'd be worried."
有关国内经济状况的矛盾信号一直让经济学家摸不着头脑。尽管产出降低,就业却在增加。本周三的房地产数据则显示,房屋收回率略有下降,抵押贷款欠款保持稳定。
Conflicting signals about the health of the domestic economy continue to puzzle economists. Employment is rising despite falling output and housing industry data on Wednesday showed home repossessions were falling slightly and mortgage arrears were stable.
然而,联合政府面临的压力日益增大,要求其采取更多措施以刺激增长。"影子"商务大臣丘卡•乌穆纳(Chuka Umunna)呼吁政府落实全面的"积极工业战略"。
Nonetheless, pressure is building on the coalition government to do more to stimulate growth. Chuka Umunna, shadow business secretary, called on the government to adopt wholesale "active industrial strategies".
工党策略师表示,联合政府的经济政策正在遭到越来越多的批评。工党资深人士正在拟定"国家投资银行"计划,为小企业和基础设施建设提供资金,这将迫使联合政府拿出类似的措施。
Labour strategists say the coalition is increasingly vulnerable to criticism of its economic policies. Senior Labour figures are working on plans for a "national investment bank" to deliver funds to small businesses and infrastructure in a move that will put pressure on the coalition to follow suit.