苹果2011年申请的一项专利。
From a patent Apple filed in 2011.
彼得巴罗斯是一位有着二十多年从业经验的资深科技记者。在他带领下,彭博公司(Bloomberg)在三周前的《纽约时报》(New York Times)和《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)对苹果公司(Apple)iWatch所做报道的基础上,再次对此进行了深入挖掘。
Led by Peter Burrows, a veteran tech reporter with more than two decades under his belt, Bloomberg has taken a second crack at the Apple (AAPL) iWatch story that the New York Times and Wall Street Journal broke three weeks ago.
根据两位“熟悉苹果公司计划”的知情人士透露的线索,彭博在第一周发表了一篇报道。报道称,苹果调用了100位产品设计师,正在开发一款腕表式的设备,能执行一些目前由iPhone和iPad完成的任务。
Bloomberg's contribution that first week was a report, sourced by two people "familiar with the company's plans," that Apple had 100 product designers working on a wristwatch-like device that could perform some of the tasks now handled by the iPhone and iPad.
星期一的这篇报道分析了智能手表行业。互联网上有一种普遍观点:现在没人戴手表了,除非是把它当成一种时尚表达。相比之下,这篇文章的看法非常独特。
Monday's piece offers an analysis of the smart watch business that makes it look considerably more attractive than the prevailing view on the Internet -- which is that nobody wears a watch anymore except as a fashion statement.
彭博这篇报道的主要观点如下:
Among the points the Bloomberg story makes:
手表是个大产业。2013年全球手表业销售额将达600亿美元。
Watches are a big business. The global watch industry will generate $60 billion in sales in 2013.
手表业利润丰厚。手表的毛利率大概是60%,对苹果来说正中下怀。
Watches are a profitable business. Gross margins on watches are about 60%, right in Apple's comfort zone.
手表产业比电视产业更有吸引力。手表的利润率大概是电视的四倍。
Watches are a more attractive business than TVs. The margin on watches is about four times bigger than for televisions.
苹果对手表很感兴趣。苹果公司已取得79项含有“手腕”这个词的专利,包括一款带有折叠屏、动能驱动的设备。
Apple is interested in watches. The company has taken out 79 patents with the word "wrist" in them, including one for a device with a flexible screen that's powered by kinetic energy.
乔纳森艾夫尤其感兴趣。身为苹果的首席设计师,他拥有众多高端手表。2000年中,他率队造访了耐克公司(Nike),带回来耐克的一款运动手表,数量多达好几箱。
Jony Ive is particularly interested. Apple's chief designer owns many high-end models and in the mid-2000s had a team visit Nike and bring home boxes of one of their sports watches.
恰逢良机。2003年,微软(Microsoft)和时尚品牌Fossil在智能手机上的合作流产了。但时至今日,用户比以往更习惯在生活中使用手机应用。
The timing is right. A 2003 Microsoft-Fossil smart phone partnership fizzled, but customers are more accustomed today to using mobile apps in their everyday lives.
据彭博社的一位知情人士透露,苹果这款手表正在开发的性能包括:打电话、查看来电人身份、查看地图坐标、计算步数(用内置步数器)、以及监控心率等健康信息。
Among the features under consideration, according to one of Bloomberg's sources, is making phone calls, seeing the identity of incoming callers, checking map coordinates, counting steps (with a built-in pedometer) and monitoring health-related data, such as heart rates.
如果苹果能在这个总额高达600亿美元的大市场中获得10%的份额,而且毛利率达到60%,彭博预测,苹果能够在这款智能手表身上拿到的营收将高达36亿美元。而摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的凯蒂休伯蒂做了类似预估,同时提出,苹果每年因此获得的增量营收为100亿到150亿美元,这个预测假定苹果现有客户中,20%的人每两年会买一个。请看她的图解。
Assuming a 10% market share of a $60 billion market with a 60% gross margin, Bloomberg estimates that Apple could see revenues of up to $3.6 billion with a successful smart watch. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty did a similar exercise and came up with incremental revenue to Apple of $10 to $15 billion a year, assuming 20% of Apple's existing customers bought one every two years. See her spreadsheet below.