当蒂芙尼(Tiffany)业绩良好时，它销售的奢侈品和全球业务地盘，令人难以利用其业绩推测其它美国零售商的表现。现在，那些美国零售商最好指望这种类比继续是勉强的。
When Tiffany is doing well, its luxury products and global presence make it tricky to use its results to draw conclusions about other US retailers. Those other US retailers better hope that the analogy remains tenuous.
2014年期间，蒂芙尼股价上涨超过60%。美国市场的强劲业绩，以及亚洲和欧洲市场的韧性，令其两度上调盈利指引——尽管美国消费者底气不足。但在本周一开始的第四季度盈利报告期之初，该珠宝集团称圣诞期间盈利不佳，而2015年的业绩不太可能令人振奋——盈利增长只能达到5%左右。美国其他零售商的投资者可能不屑一顾，但其他大量美国公司可能很快就会抄袭蒂芙尼的这段警告文字。
In 2014, Tiffany shares rallied over 60 per cent. Strong results in the US and resilience in Asia and Europe led it to raise earnings guidance twice, despite the underlying weakness of the US consumer. But at the outset of fourth-quarter earnings season on Monday, the jewellery group said that holiday earnings were weak, and that 2015 was unlikely to sparkle — earnings growth may only reach mid-single digits. Investors in other US retailers may shrug, but plenty of other US companies may soon be cribbing the text of Tiffany’s warning.
蒂芙尼近一半的销售来自国外——主要在亚洲、日本（按惯例不计入亚洲数据）和欧洲。汇率换算令日本和欧洲的销售增长数据分别降低了13%和8%。排除这一因素，欧洲市场销售健康增长了9%，而日本则下降3%。近期美元汇率持续上升，预计将影响美国跨国企业的第四季度业绩。对蒂芙尼来说，消除美元升值负面影响的办法之一是在海外市场提价，但经济疲弱可能意味着这一做法不可行。
Nearly half of Tiffany’s sales come from abroad — primarily in Asia, Japan (a separate segment), and Europe. Currency translation lowered sales growth in Japan and Europe by 13 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. Stripping that out, sales in Europe were up a healthy 9 per cent while Japan was down 3 per cent. The recent rally in the dollar is expected to sting US multinationals as fourth-quarter results come out. One way to counteract dollar appreciation would be for Tiffany to raise international prices, but economic weakness may preclude that.
蒂芙尼在美国圣诞期间的销售下跌了1%。美国市场在2014年前期的表现强劲：售价和销量都有所上升，公司毛利润率在第三季度达到近60%。美国销售中有很大一部分来自外国游客，美国国内市场的疲软在一定程度上可能源于海外游客因美元升值而底气下降。
Tiffany’s US holiday sales were off 1 per cent. US results earlier in 2014 were strong: both prices and unit sales rose, and Tiffany’s gross margin reached nearly 60 per cent in the third quarter. A significant portion of US sales are to foreign tourists and some of the domestic weakness could stem from greenback-poorer visitors.
2014年的蒂芙尼股价涨势依赖于长期全球经济增长机遇，及其经久不衰的品牌。就此而言，目前的股价下跌（周一股价下跌14%）可能代表着买入的好机会。尽管如此，其股价仍超过2015年预期盈利20倍，对时尚行业公司来说仍属高昂——无论它有多么国际化或者有多么高端。
The 2014 Tiffany rally rested on the long-term global growth opportunity and its enduring brand. The current sell-off (the shares were down 14 per cent on Monday) then may present a buying opportunity. Yet it still trades at over 20 times 2015 earnings, a juicy number for a fashion company — no matter how international or prestigious.