铜加入了继石油和铁矿石之后价格暴跌的行列。在中国投机商大举抛售之后,昨日铜价跌至五年半以来的最低点。
Copper joined the rout that has pummelled oil and iron ore, dropping to its lowest level in five-and-a-half years yesterday after aggressive selling by Chinese speculators.
铜作为一种工业金属,广泛应用于建筑和电子设备,因而被视为全球经济增长的风向标。在上海期铜价格下跌逾7%之后,伦敦铜价的跌幅多达6.6%,创下近6年来的最大单日跌幅。
The industrial metal, seen as a bellwether for global economic growth because of its extensive use in construction and electrical applications, fell as much as 6.6 per cent in London — its biggest one-day fall in almost six years — after futures dropped more than 7 per cent in Shanghai.
伦敦金属交易所(LME) 3个月后交货的期铜价格下跌173美元(跌幅为3%),至5600美元/吨,并曾触及5353美元/吨,这是自2009年7月以来的低点。
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was down $173, or 3 per cent, at $5,600 a tonne, having hit $5,353, the lowest level since July 2009.
花旗(Citi)分析师戴维•威尔逊(David Wilson)说,“大量隔夜卖盘促使伦敦金属交易所出现更多抛售。”
“There was massive selling overnight, which has prompted more selling on the LME,” said David Wilson, analyst at Citi.
油价的崩盘以及对全球增长放缓的担忧,使铜价成为最新的受害者。铜价自年初以来备受压力,累计下跌12%,本周跌破6000美元/吨的水平,这是2009年以来的首次。
Copper is the latest commodity to suffer in the wake of a collapse in the price of oil and worries about slowing global growth. It has been under pressure since the start of the year, sliding 12 per cent and breaking below $6,000 a tonne for the first time since 2009 this week.
油价暴跌引发的紧张不安、对大宗商品的悲观情绪以及中国春节之前实物需求下降,是本轮铜价下挫的原因。
A combination of oil price jitters, negative sentiment toward commodities and lower physical demand in China ahead of the lunar new year have been behind the fall.
“如果你把所有这些都放在一起……这种暴跌是难免的,”一名交易商称。“有人抓住了看空情绪,推了铜价一把,看看他们可以把它压低到什么程度。”
“If you put all those things together . . . you get set up for this type of tumble,” said one trader. “People have seized on the bearish sentiment to give copper a push and see how far they could take it.”
麦格理(Macquarie)分析师薇薇恩•劳埃德(Vivienne Lloyd)称,中国资金昨日“赢得一个回合”。“大部分的抛售都发生在开盘后第一个小时。这些资金在寻找止损点(卖出委托单),发现了它们,导致价格猛跌。”
Vivienne Lloyd, analyst at Macquarie, said Chinese funds had “won a battle” yesterday. “Most of the selling was in the first hour of trading. The funds were looking for the stop losses [orders to sell], found them and the price plunged through it.”
然而,分析师表示,此轮抛售做得有些过头。与原油不同,铜市场不存在供应过剩,而去年中国的铜使用量创下了纪录。中国是世界上最大的铜消耗国。
However, analysts said the sell-off had been overdone. Unlike crude oil, the copper market is not grappling with a supply glut and consumption in China, the world’s largest user of the metal, rose to a record last year.
由于大型铜矿的生产问题,预测机构已在降低对今年出现供应过剩的预期。麦格理预计仅有9.88万吨的精铜剩余。
Forecasters have been reducing expectations for a surplus this year because of production issues at large mines. Macquarie expects a refined surplus of just 98,800 tonnes.
“这是可以忽略不计的,”劳埃德说。“中国国家物资储备局(SRB)轻易就可以解决掉,而该局是一个对价格敏感的买家。”
“That’s a rounding error,” said Ms Lloyd. “It can be wiped out in a pen stroke by China’s State Reserves Bureau, and the SRB is a price-sensitive buyer.”