Analysis China lowered the RRR to boost lending

2015-02-06 「 4286 words / 9 minute 」
Analysis China lowered the RRR to boost lending.jpg
news
中国央行昨日下调金融机构存款准备金率。在最新数据显示经济趋弱的大背景下,中国央行正加大努力抵消资本外流的影响,同时鼓励银行加大放贷力度。
China’s central bank cut the required reserve ratio for its banks yesterday as it stepped up efforts to counter the impact of capital outflows and encourage banks to boost lending amid fresh data showing a weakening economy.
上周日发表的一项调查显示,制造业(中国经济增长的关键推动因素)1月份出现两年多来的首次收缩。在那之前,上月发布的数据显示,去年中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长是24年以来最疲弱的。
A survey published on Sunday revealed China’s manufacturing sector, a key growth driver , contracted in January for the first time in more than two years. This followed news last month of the weakest gross domestic product growth in 24 years last year.
此外,根据周二公布的国际收支数据,去年第四季度中国遭遇了有记录以来最大规模的资本流出。910亿美元的资本和金融账户逆差,是1998年中国开始编制季度数据以来最糟糕的。随着投资者抛售人民币和买入外币,中国的外汇储备也有所下降。
In addition, China suffered its largest capital outflow on record in the fourth quarter last year, according to balance of payments data released on Tuesday. The deficit of $91bn on the capital and financial accounts was the worst since quarterly data were first compiled in 1998. China’s foreign exchange reserves also fell as investors sold renminbi and bought foreign currency.
“此次降低存款准备金率的最重要原因是银行体系内的流动性需求,”摩根大通(JPMorgan)驻香港首席中国经济学家朱海斌表示。
“The most important reason for the cut is liquidity demand in the banking system,” said Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.
“外汇储备的积累——传统上是创造基础货币的重要渠道之一——不再存在。这就制造了一个需要填补的永久性流动性缺口。”
“Forex reserve accumulation — which is traditionally an important channel to create base money — is no longer there. That creates a permanent liquidity gap that needs to be filled.”
存款准备金率规定了商业银行须将多大比例的存款缴存于中国央行作为准备金,这部分资金不能用于贷款和其他投资。
The required reserve ratio, known as the RRR, specifies the portion of a commercial bank’s deposits that must be held on reserve at China’s central bank, where it is unavailable for loans and other investments.
过去10年的大部分时间里,中国经常账户和资本账户的“双顺差”导致中国的外汇储备和国内货币供应量出现膨胀。
For most of the past decade, “twin surpluses” on both the current and capital accounts swelled China’s foreign exchange reserves and its domestic money supply.
对此,中国央行稳步上调存款准备金率,以此来冲销资本流入、防止通货膨胀。
In response, the People’s Bank of China raised the RRR steadily as a way to sterilise these inflows and prevent inflation.
中国各大银行的存款准备金率从2005年的8%逐渐升至2012年末的高点——20.5%。
The RRR for China’s biggest banks rose from 8 per cent in 2005 to a high of 20.5 per cent in late 2012.
昨日下调0.5个百分点使存款准备金率降至19.5%——尽管这个数字仍比其他任何主要经济体都要高得多。随着资本流入出现逆转,经济学家预计,今年至少还会有一次下调存准率。
Yesterday’s cut of 0.5 percentage points brings that rate down to 19.5 per cent — although this is still much higher than any other major economy. With inflows reversing, economists are expecting at least one more RRR cut this year.
中国央行过去一年一直试图在“走钢丝”,一方面要提供有针对性的刺激政策以支撑不断放缓的经济,一方面要避免像应对2008年金融危机时那样释放一股新的信贷狂潮、导致金融风险加剧。
The central bank has tried to tread a fine line over the past year by providing targeted stimulus to support the slowing economy, without exacerbating financial risks by unleashing a new credit binge such as the one deployed in response to the 2008 financial crisis.
中国央行在出台这一最新宽松举措之前,已在去年11月下调基准利率,并在去年全年期间采取了一系列定向宽松措施,包括对特定银行提供价值逾800亿美元的直接贷款,以及削减小型银行的存款准备金率。
The central bank’s latest easing move followed a cut in benchmark interest rates in November and a series of targeted easing measures last year, which included direct loans worth more than $80bn to specific banks, and RRR cuts for small lenders.
中国央行昨日还宣布对所谓的城市商业银行额外降低人民币存款准备金率。此类银行的贷款业务向小企业和农业倾斜——这两个部门长期抱怨难以获得信贷。
The PBoC also announced further targeted cuts for so-called city commercial banks, whose loan books tilt towards small business and the agricultural sector — two areas that have long complained of difficulty obtaining credit.
经济学家表示,除了应对国内局面以外,中国央行此举也是对其他国家央行动作的反应,包括欧洲央行(ECB)最近决定启动的雄心勃勃的量化宽松计划。
In addition to responding to domestic conditions, economists say the PBoC’s move is also a reaction to moves by central banks in other countries, including the recent decision by the European Central Bank to pursue an ambitious programme of quantitative easing.
“就放松货币政策而言,各国都在加大赌注,”上海浦东发展银行(Shanghai Pudong Development Bank)分析师曹阳表示。
“Various countries are raising the stakes when it comes to monetary policy easing,” said Cao Yang, an analyst at Shanghai Pudong Development Bank.
“中国下调存准率是一个跟上同行步伐的举措。”
“China’s RRR cut is a move to keep pace.”