如果有人设计出了一款被誉为突破性的、有潜力与智能手机匹敌的新科技产品，但又无法让85%的潜在买家用上，结果会怎样？
What if someone came up with a new technology product that was hailed as a breakthrough with the potential to rival the smartphone, but then didn’t make it available to 85 per cent of possible buyers?
这就是苹果(Apple)推出其智能手表Watch时将会面临的问题。该公司将从本周五起接收在线订单，并于两周后在9个国家发售这款设备。
That is what Apple is about to do with the launch of its Watch. It will start collecting orders online from Friday and release the device in nine countries in two weeks.
迄今为止，苹果Watch是被人们寄予最高期望的新式“可穿戴”计算平台，但它可能难有大作为。苹果的现有客户中，只有一小部分人最终能拥有这款产品。这是因为它与iPhone绑定在一起，而iPhone用户仅占智能手机用户的六分之一。苹果Watch通过iPhone与外界连接，而且它搭载的应用都是苹果应用商店(App Store)中苹果自身移动设备所载应用的扩展。
For something that carries with it the best hope yet for a new “wearables” computing platform, the Watch risks being hamstrung. Only a subset of Apple’s existing customers will end up owning one. That is because it is yoked to the iPhone (which is used by only one in six smartphone owners): Watch gets its connectivity from the iPhone, and the only apps that work on it are extensions of the ones that are carried by Apple’s App Store for use on its own mobile devices.
颇具影响力的美国管理学教授戴维•约菲(David Yoffie)和迈克尔•库苏马诺(Michael Cusumano)表示，这不过是一个最新的例子，证明苹果并不全心认可技术平台的重要性。两人在他们下周将出版的新书《战略规则》(Strategy Rules)中表示，已故苹果联合创始人史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)热衷于打造自成一体的产品（即按照苹果自己的设定运行、彼此高度整合在一起的各种科技设备）是其性格使然。
According to influential US management professors David Yoffie and Michael Cusumano, this is just the latest manifestation of Apple’s halfhearted acceptance of the significance of tech platforms. In their book Strategy Rules*, to be published next week, they argue that the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobswas instinctively drawn to building self-contained products — tightly integrated pieces of technology that worked on their own terms.
相比之下，技术平台可从网络效应中获益，因为其他科技公司会添加补充性的产品和服务（比如应用），进而吸引更多用户。乔布斯最终屈从于平台理念的力量，为苹果移动设备推出了应用商店。但在约菲和库苏马诺看来，他所展现的这种暧昧态度如今在苹果仍十分明显，而且可能导致这家科技集团在后智能手机时代的计算平台领域失掉领先优势。
Platforms, by contrast, benefit from network effects as other tech companies add complementary products and services, such as apps, which in turn draw more users. Jobs finally bowed to the power of the platform idea with the App Store for Apple’s mobile devices. But, according to Mr Yoffie and Mr Cusumano, the mix he exhibited is still evident at Apple and could result in the tech group squandering a lead in the post-smartphone computing platform.
事情没有那么绝对。更合理的看法或许是，把Watch视为苹果现有技术平台的一个扩展，而非一款毫无平台抱负的产品。毕竟，它将运行来自第三方的简版应用。本质上讲，它代表一个新市场中的首次谨慎试水，随着时间推进，苹果可能会有新的考量。
The picture is not black and white. It is probably better to think of the Watch as an extension of an existing tech platform, rather than a product with no platform aspirations at all. It will, after all, run stripped-down apps from third parties. As such, it represents a first, cautious play in a new market where there are likely to be rethinks along the way.
历史经验表明，苹果在做调整前会做充分的准备。毕竟，它在1.0版本的其他产品（包括iPod和iPhone）上也展现出了同样的谨慎。作为iPod组成部分的音乐软件iTunes最初仅限Mac使用。iPod是在该软件向PC用户开放后才开始热卖的。与此类似，iPhone最初也只能运行苹果的应用。
History shows that Apple is quite prepared to make adjustments. After all, it displayed a similar caution with version 1.0 of other gadgets, including the iPod and iPhone. The iTunes music software, an integral part of the iPod, was initially limited to the Mac. The iPod only took off once the software was opened up to PC users. In a similar vein, the iPhone was initially designed to run only Apple’s applications.
这些产品的最初版本在问世时都未曾让世界兴奋不已。在问世的头一年，iPod只售出不到100万部，iPhone只售出约600万部。第一代Watch的表现至少应该会比这要好得多。多数分析师预测，Watch头一年的销量将达2000万至4000万块。但是，如果苹果将可穿戴设备的主要市场份额拱手让与谷歌(Google)的Android，就像它在智能手机市场所做的那样，即便这样的销量可能仍表示苹果错失了良机。
The first iterations of these products didn’t set the world on fire. Apple sold fewer than 1m iPods in the first year and only about 6m iPhones. Watch 1.0 should at least do much better than that. Most analysts are predicting sales of 20m-40m in the first year. But this could still represent a missed opportunity if Apple cedes a dominant market share in wearables to Google’s Android, as it has in smartphones.
棘手的是决定何时以及是否将Watch视为一个独立平台。在情绪高涨的时候做出的此类决定，看上去并不总像是冷静而慎重做出的有计划的战略选择。
The trick will be deciding when — and if — to treat the Watch as a platform in its own right. Such decisions, made in the heat of the moment, don’t always look like calculated strategy choices taken in a cold and deliberative manner.
举例来说，有多种说法称，乔布斯曾强烈反对开放iTunes，当他手下的经理联合反对他后，他才屈服。约菲和库苏马诺援引一名前苹果高管的话描述了那一幕：“在经过了又一番激烈的辩论后，（乔布斯）朝着联合起来的经理们甩了句脏话，嚷道，‘你们想怎么做就怎么做吧，你们负责，’然后怒气冲冲地离开了房间。”
According to various accounts, for instance, Jobs was deeply opposed to opening up iTunes and only gave in when his managers ganged up against him. Mr Yoffie and Mr Cusumano describe the scene as told to them by one former Apple executive: “After yet another heated argument, [Jobs] hurled an expletive at the assembled managers, yelled, ‘Do whatever you want, you’re responsible,’ and stormed out of the room.”
Watch要想切断与iPhone的捆绑，需要解决一些根本问题：从电池续航时间（这是连接3G网络所需的）、成本（3G芯片和单独的流量套餐）到可用性。
For the Watch to cut its tie with the iPhone, some fundamental issues would need to be solved, ranging from battery life (needed to connect to a 3G network) and cost (the 3G chip and a separate data plan) to usability.
如果Watch的主要用途之一是显示智能手机应用推送的通知，它还能独立存在吗？或许，这类可穿戴设备永远只是智能手机无关紧要的外设，而不是新的独立计算平台设备。
If one of the Watch’s main uses is to display notifications pushed out by smartphone apps, could it have an independent existence? It may be that wearables like this are never more than marginal peripherals for smartphones, rather than pieces of a new computing platform in their own right.
与此同时，苹果面临的更紧迫挑战是，如何说服现有的忠实客户相信一点：他们能找到充分的理由向别人炫耀戴在他们手腕上的计算机，即便上面带有苹果设计工作室的时尚标识。至于用第二代Watch来“松绑”，时间还充裕得很。
The more immediate challenge for Apple, meanwhile, will be to convince its existing loyal customers that there are enough good reasons to brandish a computer on their wrists, even one bearing the stylish hallmark of Apple design studios. There will be plenty of time to loosen the ties with a Watch 2.0.