世界银行(World Bank)周三警告，到2040年中国的劳动人口将减少逾10%，尽管中国已于近期放松了独生子女政策，这一警告突显人口位居世界第一的中国面临“未富先老”的风险。
China’s working age population will fall more than 10 per cent by 2040 in spite of a recent relaxation of its one child policy, the World Bank warned on Wednesday, heightening the risk of the world’s most populous country “getting old before getting rich”.
2012年，中国适龄劳动人口（定义为年龄介于15岁至64岁之间的人群）的数量数十年来首度下跌——这个转折点对劳动力成本以及政府和企业的退休金负担都有深远后果。
The number of potential workers in China, a cohort defined as people between the ages of 15 and 64, fell in 2012 for the first time in decades — a tipping point that has profound consequences for everything from the cost of labour to government and corporate pension burdens.
该人群数量进一步缩减10%，将等同于净减少9000万中国劳动人口，这一数字超过德国总人口，并与整个东亚面临的人口结构压力吻合。世行在北京发布的这份新报告显示，未来25年里，韩国、泰国和日本的劳动人口预计也将减少10%或以上。
A further decline of 10 per cent would equate to a net loss of 90m Chinese workers, a number greater than the population of Germany, and is consistent with demographic pressures across East Asia. The working populations of South Korea, Thailand and Japan are also expected to fall by 10 per cent or more over the next 25 years, according to a new report released by the World Bank in Beijing.
“东亚经历的人口结构转变是我们见过最为剧烈的。”世行主管东亚和太平洋地区事务的副行长阿克塞尔·冯·特罗森博格(Axel van Trotsenburg)表示。“该地区所有发展中国家都面临未富先老的风险。”
“East Asia has undergone the most dramatic demographic transition we have ever seen,” said Axel van Trotsenburg, regional vice-president. “All developing countries in the region risk getting old before getting rich.”
2010年，全球年龄在65岁或以上的人口中，近40%（约2.11亿人）生活在东亚。
As of 2010, almost 40 per cent of all people on the planet aged 65 or older — some 211m individuals — lived in East Asia.
世行估计，在未来25年或更短的时间里，将有至少12个东亚国家的65岁或以上的人口比例翻番至14%。在法国和美国，同样的人口结构转变分别经历了115年和69年。
The World Bank estimates that a least a dozen East Asian countries will see the percentage of their populations aged 65 or higher double to 14 per cent in a quarter century or less. In France and the US, the same transformation took 115 and 69 years respectively.
中国政府最近放宽了1979年以来通过强制堕胎和绝育措施强制执行的名声不佳的独生子女政策，允许所有夫妇生育两个孩子。此前，只有中国少数民族成员和头胎为女孩的偏远地区家庭才有资格生二胎。
The Chinese government recently relaxed its infamous one child policy, brutally imposed since 1979 through forced abortions and sterilisations, and said that all couples would be allowed to have two children. Before, only members of China’s small ethnic minority groups and rural residents whose first child was a girl qualified.
然而，这一政策放宽对于提高生育率和重振中国适龄劳动人口也许来的太迟了，因为抚养孩子的成本跟收入水平一同飙升，尤其在大城市的中心。
Yet the relaxation may have come too late to boost fertility rates and rejuvenate China’s working age population, as the cost of rearing children has soared alongside incomes, especially in large urban centres.
“随着国家越来越富裕，生育率会降低。”世行报告的首席作者欧凯夫(Philip O'Keefe)表示。“鉴于中国目前的生育率，随着那些想要二孩的家庭又添新丁，人口可能会有暂时上扬，但我们看不到多大的长期影响。”
“As [countries] get richer, fertility falls,” said Brian O’Keefe, lead author of the World Bank report. “Given China’s current fertility [rates], you may get a temporary uptick in people who wanted to have a second child having one, but we don’t see a big long-term impact there.”
欧凯夫引用的调查显示，有资格生二孩的家庭中，只有四分之一家庭事实上会这么做。
Mr O’Keefe cited surveys showing that only a quarter of Chinese people eligible to have a second child would in fact do so.
世界银行敦促东亚国家政府接受移民作为应对人口下降压力的一项措施，并指出澳大利亚和新西兰人口中超过20%是移民，新加坡人口中超过40%是移民。
The World Bank urged East Asian governments to embrace immigration as one tactic to counter falling population pressures, noting that more than 20 per cent of Australians and New Zealanders — and 40 per cent of Singaporeans — were immigrants.
“人口结构是发展中的一股强大力量，但它并非命运注定。”欧凯夫说。“通过政策选择，政府可以帮助社会适应快速老龄化。”
“Demography is a powerful force in development but it is not destiny,” Mr O’Keefe said. “Through their policy choices, governments can help societies adapt to rapid ageing.”