中国整体零售消费增长的温和放缓，掩盖了表面之下的多重动荡。近期几项研究显示，品味和购物习惯正在变化，消费者在海外收敛了奢侈品购买，在国内变得更加挑剔，同时对自己的健康、家庭和体验优先安排支出。
A gentle moderation in China’s headline retail spending growth conceals multiple upheavals beneath the surface. Tastes and shopping habits are in flux as consumers rein in purchases of luxury items overseas, become more discerning at home and prioritise spending on their health, families and experiences, recent studies show.
英国《金融时报》旗下“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)的一项调查显示，可自由支配支出的总体增长很可能在3月份继续放缓。此前，今年头两个月零售销售同比增长10.2%，低于10.7%的2015年全年增幅和12%的2014年增幅。
Overall growth in discretionary spending was likely to continue moderating in March, according to a survey by the FTConfidential Research unit at the Financial Times. This would follow a 10.2 per cent year-on-year growth in retail sales in the first two months of the year, down from a full-year 10.7 per cent in 2015 and 12 per cent in 2014.
就购买习惯而言，花钱阔绰的中国出境游客人群正出现一个显著变化。根据FT投资参考对1318名出境游客进行的调查，他们表示，相比以往，他们不那么可能在境外旅游期间购买昂贵物品，如名贵手袋、珠宝和名表。
In terms of purchasing habits, a significant change is taking place among the hordes of free-spending outbound Chinese tourists, who said they were less likely than previously to buy big-ticket items such as luxury handbags, jewellery and watches while travelling abroad, according to an FTCR survey of 1,318 overseas travellers.
相比之下，相对于2015年同一项调查的结果，人们在化妆品、服装、鞋子、电子产品和纪念品上的支出得到保持，甚至有所增加。行业组织——世界旅游及旅行理事会(WTTC)上周估计，2015年中国游客总计在境外支出2150亿美元，相比2014年的1400亿美元增长53%。
In contrast, spending on cosmetics, clothes, shoes, electronics and souvenirs held up or increased relative to the results of the same survey conducted in 2015. The World Travel and Tourism Council, an industry body, estimated last week that Chinese tourists spent $215bn outside mainland China in 2015, a 53 per cent rise from $140bn in 2014.
据FT投资参考介绍，对于减少在境外购买昂贵奢侈物品，人们提到的主要原因是同类商品在国内价格下降，以及跨境网上购物数量不断增加。
Key reasons cited for the slide in big-ticket luxury purchases outside China were the easing prices of similar goods at home and the increasing volume of cross-border online shopping, FTCR said.
研究公司英敏特(Mintel)估计，2010年至2015年期间跨境网上购物的年复合增长率达到63%。英敏特预测，到2020年网上跨境购物总额将增至2220亿美元（去年为973亿美元），占2020年中国预计将达到的1.3万亿美元的网上销售总额的17%。
Mintel, a research firm, estimates that cross-border online shopping grew at a compound annual growth rate of 63 per cent between 2010 and 2015. Total online cross-border shopping is forecast to rise to $222bn by 2020, up from $97.3bn last year, Mintel forecasts, accounting for 17 per cent of the $1.3tn in Chinese online sales expected in 2020.
强化这种“海淘”趋势的一个现象是，中国消费者出现了向高端产品升级的明显倾向。研究公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)发现，人们在化妆品、烈酒、牛奶及奶制品、护发、大米、生鲜、啤酒等品类上表现出升级质量和品牌的强大动力（见图表）。
The trend to import at the click of a mouse is reinforced by a clear tendency among Chinese consumers to upgrade to premium products. McKinsey, the research firm, found strong motivations to upgrade quality and brand in the cosmetics, spirits, dairy milk, hair care, rice, fresh produce, beer and other sectors (see chart).
麦肯锡在2015年末对44个城市1万消费者进行的调查显示，上述趋势的反面是，中国消费者对那些被视为不太健康、甚至潜在有害的产品日趋敬而远之。麦肯锡发现，与2012年进行的类似调查相比，碳酸饮料、口香糖、冰淇淋和西式快餐的人气均出现下滑（见图表）。
This trend was echoed in a growing aversion toward products seen as less healthy or potentially harmful, according to the McKinsey survey, which polled 10,000 consumers in 44 cities in late 2015. Carbonated soft drinks, chewing gum, ice cream and western fast food all slipped in popularity compared with a similar survey in 2012, McKinsey found (see chart).
光明乳业(Bright Dairy)旗下采用来自保加利亚一个长寿村的乳酸菌的酸奶品牌“莫斯利安”(Momchilovtsi)销售飙涨，以及特种茶的高价位和泰国茉莉香米的强劲需求，都突显了这种转向健康饮食的趋势。
Surging sales in China of Momchilovtsi, a Bright Dairy yoghurt brand that uses bacteria from a Bulgarian village that is said to bestow long life, encapsulates the shift toward healthy eating, as do the high prices for speciality teas and robust demand for Thai jasmine rice.
不过，麦肯锡的调查也发现，当中国人找到自己满意的品牌后，他们似乎更有可能忠于这些品牌。愿意换用一种自己“选择名单”以外的品牌的消费者数量下降。以服装为例，愿意考虑自己通常考虑范围外的品牌的消费者已从2011年的40%降至2015年的略低于30%（见图表）。
However, when the Chinese find brands that they are satisfied with, they appear more likely to stick with them, according to the McKinsey survey. The number of consumers willing to switch to a brand outside their “short list” has dropped. In apparel, for example, the number of consumers willing to consider a brand outside their usual consideration fell from 40 per cent in 2011 to just below 30 per cent in 2015 (see chart).
越来越多的中国人寻找难以忘怀的体验，而不是产品，影院、餐饮、水疗和旅游都迎来旺盛需求。专业做出境游的在线旅行社赞那度(Zanadu)的首席运营官王洋告诉FT投资参考：“我们的客户去意大利观看歌剧，去北欧领略北极光，在巴黎的米其林星级餐厅用餐。”
Increasingly, Chinese people look for memorable experiences rather than products, with cinema, dining, spa visits and travel all posting a robust following. Wang Yang, chief operating officer of Zanadu, an online travel agency specialising in overseas travel, told FTCR: “Our clients go to the opera in Italy, watch the Northern Lights in Scandinavia and dine at Michelin-starred restaurants in Paris.”