现在我们可以确定了。
Now we can be sure.
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)永远不会向中间立场靠拢。
Donald Trump will never tack to the middle.
让特朗普做他自己，是其团队新的座右铭。这句话让人摸不着头脑，因为他从未尝试其它策略。
Let Trump be Trump, is his team’s new motto, which is baffling since he has not tried anything else.
通过聘请极右翼保守派网站Breitbart News的斯蒂芬•班农(Stephen Bannon)，特朗普打消了一切尚存的疑虑：他的竞选策略主要是煽动白人的怨恨。
By recruiting Stephen Bannon of Breitbart News, the far right conservative website, to run his campaign, Mr Trump has banished whatever doubts still lingered: his White House bid is chiefly about inciting white resentment.
在接下来的竞选阶段，他将唤醒他找得到的所有黑暗恐惧。
For the next 10 weeks, he will trigger every dark fear he can find.
自理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)以辞去总统之位来终结美国漫长的国家噩梦以来，已经过去了40多年。特朗普版的噩梦还将延续很久。
It has been more than a generation since Richard Nixon ended America’s long national nightmare by resigning the presidency. Mr Trump’s version still has a way to go.
如果他竞选失败了，我们也没什么理由认为这一切会随之结束。
There is little reason to think it would come to an end if he lost.
这位前真人秀明星与尼克松相像的地方既有意识形态层面的，也有心理学层面的。
The former reality television star’s debt to Nixon is as much about psychology as ideology.
身为美国第37届总统的尼克松收集怨恨就像集邮家收集邮票。
America’s 37th president collected resentments like philatelists do stamps.
尼克松从未遇到过他不想耿耿于怀的愤怒。
Nixon never met a grudge he did not want to nurse.
福克斯新闻(Fox News)不光彩的创始人罗杰•艾尔斯(Roger Ailes)当年成名，就是因为他在1968年总统竞选中训练尼克松增加微笑、把电视当作自己的朋友，最后赢得大选。
Roger Ailes, the disgraced founder of Fox News, made his name by training Nixon to smile more and treat TV as his friend in his winning 1968 campaign.
并非巧合的是，艾尔斯现在指导特朗普与希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)进行电视辩论。
It is no coincidence that Mr Ailes is now coaching Mr Trump for his televised debates with Hillary Clinton.
他的任务十分艰巨。
He has his work cut out.
特朗普或许会借鉴尼克松1968年的剧本，搞一场以恐惧为本的竞选，呼吁法律和秩序。
Mr Trump may have borrowed Nixon’s 1968 playbook by running a fear-based campaign that appeals to law and order.
但是如今沉默的多数派中的白人比例远不及当初。
But today’s silent majority is way less white than it was back then.
以此作为竞选策略，特朗普无异于玩火。
As an electoral strategy, Mr Trump’s campaign is flirting with suicide.
不过，作为媒体策略，该策略行得通。
Yet it works as a media strategy.
尼克松认为，能唤起人们反应的是恐惧，而不是爱。
Nixon believed people respond to fear rather than love.
他们不会在主日学校教这些——但这是事实，他表示。
They don’t teach that in Sunday school — but it’s true, he said.
他还对精英群体——被他的副总统斯皮罗•阿格纽(Spiro Agnew)称为无耻势利小人的软弱核心的教授、常青藤毕业生和专家——怀有深深的仇恨。
He also harboured a deep hatred of the elites — the professors, Ivy Leaguers and experts whom Spiro Agnew, his vice-president, called the effete core of impudent snobs.
特朗普的周围也尽是怀有尼克松式不满的人。
Mr Trump is surrounded by people with the same Nixonian grievances.
他的第一个导师、具有传奇色彩的纽约律师罗伊•科恩(Roy Cohn)曾发表高见称，与其了解法律，你还不如了解法官。
His first mentor, Roy Cohn, the legendary New York lawyer, advised people that you should know the judge not the law.
特朗普每天都会交谈的的老朋友罗杰•斯通(Roger Stone)认为，仇恨是比爱更强烈的动机。
Roger Stone, Mr Trump’s oldest friend with whom he speaks daily, believes hate is a stronger motivator than love.
上月辞职的特朗普前竞选经理保罗•马纳福特(Paul Manafort)凭借为世界各地的偏执狂强人担任顾问而起家。
Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign manager, who resigned on Friday, made his fortune as an adviser to paranoid strongmen around the world.
班农的网站充斥着各种阴谋论。
Mr Bannon’s website is dominated by conspiracy theories.
如今他得到了一个黄金机会，可以把他的偏执狂转化为总统竞选策略。
Now he has a golden chance to turn his paranoia into a presidential campaign.
那会是什么样的？
What will it look like?
尼克松的魅影已经在特朗普的竞选内容中浮现。
Nixon’s ghost was already visible in the Trump campaign’s content.
与罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)不同，尼克松喜欢大政府——他增设的联邦机构超过之后任何一届总统。
Unlike Ronald Reagan, Nixon was happy with big government — he added more federal agencies than any president since.
特朗普成功赢得白人中产阶级选民的支持，部分源自于他承诺保证联邦福利，比如社会保障制度。
Mr Trump’s success with white middle-class voters derives partly from his pledge to leave federal entitlements, such as social security, in place.
与里根不同，尼克松奉行的外交政策更多地是基于国家利益，而非美国价值观。
Unlike Reagan, Nixon pursued a foreign policy based more on national interest than American values.
这样的务实主义使他得以顶住反对共产党的鹰派，与毛泽东主政的中国达成历史性协议。
Such pragmatism en-abled him to override the anti-communist hawks and do the historic deal with Mao’s China.
特朗普对威权领导人——比如俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)、甚至朝鲜的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)——的敬佩，展现了类似的对美国情怀的漠视。
Mr Trump’s admiration for autocrats, such as Russian president Vladimir Putin and even North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, shows a similar disregard for US sensibilities.
但是，真正滋养特朗普的是尼克松的文化信息——点燃白人中产阶级的愤怒。
But it was Nixon’s cultural message, the stoking of white middle-class anger, that really feeds Mr Trump.
这将日益主导特朗普余下的竞选之路。
It will increasingly dominate what remains of his campaign.
该策略可能成功吗？这便是特朗普和尼克松有所不同的地方。
Is there any way it could succeed? This is where Mr Trump and Nixon part company.
后者是他那个时代的政治天才。
The latter was the political genius of his age.
尼克松当然利用了白人对上世纪60年代民权改革的怨恨。
Nixon certainly cashed in on white resentment against the civil rights reforms of the 1960s.
但即便是在他南方战略的巅峰时期，他也小心翼翼地从不表达赤裸裸的种族主义观点。
But even at the peak of his southern strategy, he was careful never to express clear racist views.
而特朗普几乎没有哪句话是不冒犯某个少数族裔的。
Mr Trump can barely finish a sentence without offending some ethnic group.
在赢得共和党总统提名后，尼克松转向了中间立场。
Nixon also pivoted to the centre after winning the Republican nomination.
特朗普截然相反。
Mr Trump is doing the opposite.
他在迎接大选之际进一步走向极端——该策略在美国总统竞选中是史无前例的——还嘲笑常规惯例，比如在摇摆州建立专业竞选运作。
Not only is Mr Trump moving further to the extreme for the general election — a tactic for which there is no precedent in US presidential contests — he also mocks standard practice, such as setting up professional operations in the swing states.
和马纳福特一样，班农也没有竞选经验。
Mr Bannon, like Mr Manafort, has no campaign experience.
特朗普是个局外人，其顾问是局外人，吸引的选民自认为是局外人。
Mr Trump is an outsider, advised by outsiders, appealing to voters who see themselves as outsiders.
尼克松对此会感到错愕。
Nixon would be aghast.
这不是赢得竞选的方式。
This is not how you win elections.
但是，这是一个品牌运作的极好方式。
But it is a great way to leverage your brand.
很多人都怀疑特朗普是否真的期待过自己能赢得共和党提名，更不用说有机会迎接大选了。
Many have doubted whether Mr Trump really expected to win the Republican nomination, let alone have a shot at the presidency.
他们猜测，特朗普竞选总统只是另一种推广其品牌的方式。
They suspected his candidacy was just another way of boosting the Trump name.
在竞选过程中，特朗普发现了白人身份认同政治的巨大市场。
In the process, Mr Trump found a huge market of people who respond to white identity politics.
在这个白人群体看来，福克斯新闻(Fox News)已经成为体制的一部分。
In their view, Fox News has become the establishment.
该机构被驱逐的创始人艾尔斯现在闲着。
Its ousted founder, Mr Ailes, is at a loose end.
特朗普在Twitter上拥有1100万粉丝，是福克斯夜间观众的数倍。
Mr Trump has 11m Twitter followers, which is a multiple of Fox’s nightly audience.
面对失败，有什么能比从你的支持者获益——开设特朗普新闻频道——更好的回应方式吗？更奇怪的事都发生了。
What better response to defeat than to monetise your base by launching a Trump News Channel? Stranger things have happened.
这样的项目将把所有那些怨恨转化为现金。
Such a venture would convert all those resentments into hard cash.
作为媒体大亨，特朗普还可以扮演希拉里政府首席刺儿头的角色。
As a media baron, Mr Trump could also play chief thorn in the side of Mrs Clinton’s administration.
这种局面将有一些诗意。
There would be a certain poetry to that.
当年希拉里在迫使尼克松下台的水门事件调查委员会中担任法律助理。
Mrs Clinton worked as a legal aide to the Watergate committee that brought down Nixon.
在特朗普的世界里，一切政治都是个人层面的。
All politics is personal in Mr Trump’s world.
还有什么能比为尼克松的魅影报仇更适合的方式来完成这个轮回呢？
What more fitting way of completing the circle than avenging the ghost of Nixon?