谁从与中国打贸易战中获利？
Who gains from a trade war with China?
上周末，在秘鲁举行的亚太经济合作组织峰会上，一个最大的问题是，
At the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru over the weekend, one of the biggest questions was whether Donald J. Trump,
作为下一任总统唐纳德•J•特朗普是否会坚持他的威胁，即针对北京建立高贸易壁垒，将美国拖入一场与世界第二大经济体针锋相对的对抗。
as the next president, will stick to his threat to erect steep trade barriers against Beijing, dragging the United States into a tit-for-tat confrontation with the world’s second-largest economy.
这种战争尚未开始，但似乎很明显美国已经失败了。
No such war has begun, yet it seems clear that the United States has already lost.
中国在全球经济体系中的获利一直在稳步增长。
China has been steadily gaining in the global economic system.
美国发动的反全球化攻势，正在让中国的地位得到提升。
Waging war against globalization, America is making China’s case.
国际货币基金组织（简称IMF）前中国部门负责人埃斯瓦尔•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)称，从长远来看，中国无论如何都是赢家。
Eswar Prasad, a former head of the Chinese division at the International Monetary Fund, argues that over the long term China comes out a winner no matter what.
如果美国对价值近5000亿美元的中国进口商品征收45％的关税，中国经济肯定会受到损害。
China’s economy would surely suffer if the United States were to impose a 45 percent tariff on nearly $500 billion worth of Chinese imports.
虽然美国只吸收了中国出口的16％，但美国是中国最健康的出口市场。
The United States absorbs only 16 percent of Chinese exports, but it is China’s healthiest export market.
对美国保护主义的恐惧已经激起了中国的资本外逃。
Fears of American protectionism are already stoking capital flight from China.
但中国或许能比美国更好地经受住这种打击。
But China might be better placed than the United States to take the blow.
中国肯定也会反击。
And it would certainly counterpunch.
中国共产党喉舌《环球时报》的一篇社论做出的警告也许与实际情况差得并不太远，社论称美国的行动将意味着：大量波音飞机的订单将转到欧洲空客手里，
An editorial in China’s Global Times, a Communist Party mouthpiece, is probably not far-off in its warning that American action would mean: A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus.
美国汽车的在华销售将受重挫，苹果手机差不多要被挤走，美国大豆、玉米将从中国绝迹。
US auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and US soybean and maize imports will be halted.
中国有几种报复方式。
China has several ways to retaliate.
它可以禁止国有企业与美国公司做生意。
It could bar state-owned companies from doing business with American businesses.
它可以限制基本商品的出口，就像中国曾停止向日本出口电子工业必不可少的所谓稀土矿石，以作为对与日本渔业争端的回应。
It could limit access to essential commodities, as it did in response to a fishing dispute with Japan by stopping exports of so-called rare earth minerals essential to the electronics industry.
中国还可以放松对盗版美国专利和版权的打击。
It could soft-pedal efforts to combat the piracy of American patents and copyrights.
美国一些最成功的企业将面临艰难的前景。
Some of the United States’ most successful companies would be in for a rough ride.
比如，绝大多数苹果手机在中国组装。
The vast majority of Apple’s iPhones, for example, are assembled in China.
但是，组装成本只占不到4％的设备附加价值。
The assembly costs, though, account for less than 4 percent of the value added of the device.
这意味着中国可以迫使iPhone停止生产而不给自己带来多少代价，苹果公司却得把生产转移到其他地方去，将需要做出破坏性极大的高成本努力。
That means China could force a halt in iPhone production at little cost to itself, while Apple would face a deeply disruptive, expensive effort to shift production elsewhere.
在美国从零开始制造iPhone几乎不可能。
Building it from scratch in the United States is nearly impossible.
美国的决心可以持续多久？支持贸易的彼得森国际经济研究所的一份分析给出的结论是，与中国和墨西哥进行全面贸易战争，将在2020年让美国的失业率提高到近9％，如今的失业率是4.9％，
How long could American resolve hold? An analysis by the pro-trade Peterson Institute for International Economics concluded that a full-blown trade war with China and Mexico would push unemployment in the United States to nearly 9 percent in 2020, from 4.9 percent today.
这将无法改善数百万工薪阶层美国人民的经济前景，而特朗普正是以他们的名义提出要打贸易战的。
That would not improve the economic outlook for millions of working-class Americans in whose name Mr Trump proposed this fight.
这可能还不是最糟糕的部分。
And that may not even be the worst part.
美国从国际舞台上抽身也让中国在其他方面有机可乘。
Circling the wagons around the American border plays directly into China’s hands in other ways.
华盛顿将在这场贸易战中被视为反面角色。
Washington would be cast as the villain in the fight.
无论中国政府在反抗美国利益上可能采取多少伎俩，它仍会在许多国家眼里保持着受害者的身份，保持着为开放、以规则为基础的贸易事业担当倡导者的地位。
No matter how many tricks the Chinese government might deploy against American interests, it would remain the victim in the eyes of many nations, a champion for the cause of open rules-based trade.
即使像许多盟友所说的那样，特朗普只是在虚张声势，为的是在未来的谈判中获得优势，但这已经造成了很大的损害。
Even if Mr Trump is just bluffing, as many of his allies say, to gain leverage in some future negotiation, much of the damage has been done.
他的威吓已经改变了人们对美国在世界上所起到的作用的看法。
His bluster has changed the perception of the role the United States will play in the world.
在其他富裕国家（如英国和法国）转向民粹的民族主义之际，中国已摇身一变，担当起资本主义全球化捍卫者这个不太可能的角色。
Amid a turn toward populist nationalism in other rich countries — like Britain and France — China has emerged in the unlikely role of defender of globalized capitalism.
中国是仍在谈论提高一体化程度的唯一大国，彼得森研究所的中国问题专家尼古拉斯•拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)说。
China is the one major power still talking about increased integration, said Nicholas Lardy, a China specialist at the Peterson Institute.
中国是世界上唯一展示全球化带来好处观念的主要国家，
China is the only major country in the world projecting the idea that globalization brings benefits.
这是美国的损失。
And that is the United States’ loss.
绝大多数发展中国家仍相信，它们的繁荣依赖于在贯穿全球经济的供应链中找到自己成功的位置。
A great many countries in the developing world still believe prosperity depends on their successful integration into the supply chains that traverse the global economy.
美国的向内转移让这个国家似乎不再能为世界提供什么，这已经强有力地体现在美国对跨太平洋伙伴关系的拒绝上。
By turning inward — a move already reinforced by the rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership — the United States appears to have little to offer.
澳大利亚贸易部长史蒂文•乔博(Steven Ciobo)在美国大选后仅几天就表示了这种看法，他说，他的国家将为缔结区域全面经济伙伴关系做出努力，这是中国倡议的、不包括美国在内的16个亚太国家的贸易协定，协定将支持北京提出的亚太自由贸易区。
Steven Ciobo, Australia’s trade minister, conveyed that point only a few days after the American election by saying that his nation would work to conclude the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — a Chinese initiative among 16 Asian and Pacific countries that excludes the United States — and would support Beijing’s proposed Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific.
根据利马的一位中国高级官员的说法，秘鲁和智利也正在寻求加入中国倡议的贸易协定。
Ditto for Peru and Chile, which, according to a senior Chinese official in Lima, are also now seeking to join the Chinese trade initiative.
亚洲地区的每个经济体都几乎可以肯定地认为，自己的未来与中国有着更密切的联系，IMF前官员普拉萨德对我说。
Almost certainly every economy in the Asian region sees its future lying more closely linked with China, Mr Prasad, the former I.M.F. official, told me.
在特朗普大谈特谈退出贸易协议、让盟国为防御掏钱的同时，亚洲国家将很难抵挡中国的拥抱。
With Trump talking about withdrawing from trade deals and making allies pay for protection, it will be tough for Asian countries to resist China’s embrace.
如果华盛顿针对中国的行动开始扰乱亚洲的供应链的话，美国可能很快会被该地区的经济所遗弃。
And if Washington’s actions against China start to disrupt Asia’s supply chains, the United States could quickly become the region’s economic pariah.
问题是，要达到什么的目？不可能只是关乎于阻止货币操纵。
The question is, to what purpose? It can’t simply be about stopping currency manipulation.
这种恐惧已经过时了。
That’s an outdated fear.
中国已不再为增加进出口努力降低其货币的价值。
Instead of working to lower the value of its currency to improve its exports,
面对资本外逃，中国最近花了大约1万亿美元来支撑人民币的价值。
China has spent about $1 trillion lately to prop up the value of the renminbi in the face of capital flight.
如果中国停止这种做法，人民币的价值就会直线下降，从而提高中国的贸易竞争力。
If it stopped, the currency would drop like a stone, enhancing China’s trade competitiveness.
此外，给中国贸易设置壁垒对缩小美国贸易逆差几乎没有作用。
Moreover, slapping trade barriers against China would do little to narrow the American trade deficit.
在中国制造产品的美国公司不会带回多少制造业；在大多数情况下，它们会去另外一些有廉价劳动力的国家。
American companies building things in China wouldn’t bring much manufacturing home; in most cases they would go to some other country with cheap labor.
而且，就算回流到国内，这种生产在很大程度上也会是高度自动化的，不能给美国人提供多少额外就业。
And to the extent they did reshore production, most of it would be highly automated, employing few additional Americans.
特朗普要与中国平衡贸易的说法在经济上讲不通，史剑道(Derek Scissors)说，他是保守派的美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的中国问题专家。
It does not make economic sense for Trump to want to balance trade with China, said Derek Scissors, a China specialist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
平衡贸易并不能把就业带回来。
Balanced trade doesn’t bring back jobs.
特朗普起初可能看似是赢家，有决心保卫工人阶级。
Initially, Mr Trump might look like a winner, resolute in his defense of the working class.
但随着这些做法的后果开始变得明显，任何特朗普受欢迎程度的提升都不太可能持久。
But any increase in popularity would be unlikely to last as the consequences started to become apparent.
相对来说，华盛顿在试图遏制中国的影响力上已经没有多少手牌可打。
Washington has already been playing a relatively weak hand trying to contain China’s influence.
中国已通过巧妙地利用投资，赢得了从非洲到拉丁美洲的不少国家，扩大了自己的影响范围。
China has skillfully deployed investments to win over countries from Africa to Latin America, broadening its network of influence.
中国建议的亚洲基础设施银行已经成形，尽管亚投行受到奥巴马政府的反对，但得到了英国和其他美国盟友的参与。
Its proposed Asian infrastructure bank proceeded, despite opposition from the Obama administration, after Britain and other American allies jumped on board.
中国正在成为国际社会的主导成员，普拉萨德在他的新书《人民币的崛起》中写道，但不是以西方喜欢的方式，在现行的游戏规则下，被纳入了现有的体系。
China is becoming a leading member of the international community, Mr Prasad wrote in his new book Gaining Currency, but not, as the West prefers, by being co-opted into existing institutions under the current rules of the game.
相反，中国正在把其他国家纳入它想要建立的规则体系中。
Instead, China is co-opting other countries into the system of rules it wants to dictate.
特朗普恰好为中国非传统规则体系的前行提供了一臂之力。
Mr Trump just gave China’s alternative system of rules a big push forward.