唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的总统接班已经从电视真人秀演变成了即使是好莱坞也不会兜售的谍战故事：美国情报人员还有他们的英国同仁都认为，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)打了一场旨在破坏民主的信息战。
The presidential transition of Donald Trump has turned from reality television into a spy story even Hollywood could not sell: US intelligence services have concluded, along with their British cousins, that President Vladimir Putin of Russia has run a campaign of information warfare to disrupt democracies.
美国中央情报局(CIA)相信莫斯科的意图是助特朗普当选。
The Central Intelligence Agency believes that Moscow aimed to elect Mr Trump.
目的只有一个。
These goals are one and the same.
特朗普极有可能成为史上最具破坏性的美国总统。
Mr Trump is odds-on to be the most disruptive US president in history.
我们正航行在一片未知海域：从来没有一次美国选举成为一位资深克格勃(KGB)开展情报行动的目标。
We are in uncharted waters: an American election has never been the target of an intelligence operation run by a KGB veteran.
尽管如此，以冷战的历史为鉴，我们或许可以知道前方有什么在等着我们。
That said, the history of the cold war is a guide to where we are headed.
CIA本身从1947年刚成立没几个月就开始试图操纵他国选举。
The CIA itself began trying to fix elections within months of its creation in 1947.
第一个目标是意大利，美国间谍以不寻常的手法向保守派政客和天主教牧师输送了大量现金，目的是支持天主教民主党候选人，让共产党人落选。
The first target was Italy; American spies backhanded bushels of cash to conservative politicians and Catholic priests to shore up Christian Democrats and defeat Communist candidates.
这一策略很管用。
It worked.
通过马歇尔计划(Marshall Plan)，大量资金流向了西欧的保守政党和中间路线的政党。
Millions laundered through the Marshall Plan went to conservative and centrist parties in western Europe.
接着，CIA把目光放到全球，在从伊朗到印尼等多个国家资助政变、扶植腐败残暴的政权。
Then the CIA went global, financing coups d’état and installing corrupt and cruel regimes from Iran to Indonesia.
在日本，CIA帮助创立了自民党(LDP)，该党从1955年起几乎一直掌权。
In Japan the agency helped create the Liberal Democratic party that has held power almost continuously from 1955.
共产主义者更冷酷——也更穷。
The communists were more cruel — and impecunious.
决定性因素是美元。
The decisive factor was the dollar.
在冷战中，金钱打败了莫斯科。
Money defeated Moscow in the cold war.
美国情报机构拥有获胜所需的资金。
US intelligence had the wherewithal to win.
金钱就是力量。
Money is power.
特朗普深谙此道。
Mr Trump grasps this.
但信息同样也是力量。
But information is power too.
普京明了这一点。
Mr Putin knows that well.
而从你的敌人那里窃取的秘密情报，就是力量的平方了。
And secret information stolen from your enemy is power squared.
冷战2.0已经打响。
So cold war 2.0 is on.
这将是持久战，不过目前普京占了上风。
It will be a long game, but right now Mr Putin has an edge.
似乎是莫斯科撬锁窃取了美国政党的文件。
It appears Moscow set out to pick the locks and rifle the files of America’s political parties.
不过，它只用了从美国民主党那里盗走的数据。
But it only used the data purloined from Democrats.
而维基解密(WikiLeaks)和Twitter无意间成倍放大了经人为挑选后投送的新闻。
WikiLeaks and Twitter bots mindlessly multiplied manipulated news feeds.
它们一道通过上千条Twitter消息宣判了希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)选战的死刑。
Together they inflicted death by a thousand tweets on Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
特朗普凭借大约8万张普选票锁定了选举人票的胜局。
Mr Trump’s hold on the electoral college stands on roughly 80,000 votes.
他称这是一次压倒性胜利，而因为情报部门向国会汇报了克里姆林宫网络战的情况，他对CIA及其他美国情报机构大加贬斥。
He calls this a landslide while denigrating the CIA and the rest of the US intelligence establishment for their reporting on the Kremlin’s cyberwarfare.
美国国会的共和党领导人已发誓要在1月20日特朗普就职后，针对莫斯科操纵选举一事发起调查。
Republican leaders in Congress have vowed to lead investigations into Moscow’s manipulations after Mr Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
随着调查的展开，情况将不会那么光彩。
They will not be pretty as they play out.
参议院对国务卿人选的确认听证也同样不会太好看。
Nor will Senate confirmation hearings for the post of secretary of state.
特朗普提名埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)首席执行官雷克斯.蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)担任这一职位对他本人没有好处，蒂勒森与俄罗斯保持着友好而密切的业务往来。
Mr Trump did himself no favours by nominating ExxonMobil chief Rex Tillerson, whose business ties to Russia are deep and cosy.
光是这项提名，就让这位候任美国总统看起来像是来自西伯利亚的候选人。
The choice alone makes the president-elect look like the Siberian candidate.
特朗普对整个情报界的嘲笑以及他拒绝听取CIA简报的行为，对美国国家安全大为有损。
Mr Trump also has done a deep disservice to the national security of the US by deriding the entire intelligence community and declining to listen to CIA briefings.
他显然不想听美国间谍们能说些什么。
He evidently does not wish to hear what American spies have to say.
他主意已定：他不会被事实迷惑。
His mind is made up; he will not be confused by facts.
听取CIA简报是自1960年以来的一个传统。
CIA briefings have been a tradition since 1960.
有的候任总统很喜欢CIA的简报，有的则不把它们放在心上。
Some presidents-elect loved them, some listened with one ear,
不过，还没有哪位候任总统取消对这一绝密每日报告的免费订阅而选择电视新闻的。
but none have cancelled their free subscription to the top-secret daily paper in favour of cable news.
在总统任内，从哈里.杜鲁门(Harry Truman)到巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)都曾动用过美国情报的力量——部分总统还滥用过。
In office, presidents from Harry Truman to Barack Obama have used — and some have abused — the power of US intelligence.
2004年，乔治.W.布什(George W Bush)总统曾表示CIA只不过是在猜测伊拉克战争的进程。
In 2004, President George W Bush said the CIA was just guessing about the course of the war in Iraq.
不说眼前，那是冷战后白宫和CIA关系处于最低潮的时候。
Until now, this was the low point in post-cold war relations between the White House and the CIA.
如果总统不再听取CIA的意见，用本杰明.迪斯雷利(Benjamin Disraeli)的话说，CIA将无异于一座熄灭的火山。
If the agency does not have the president’s ear, it is, to quote Benjamin Disraeli, an exhausted volcano.
我根据自己从事美国情报报道和写作三十载的经验，斗胆做个猜测。
Let me venture an educated guess based on 30 years of reporting and writing about US intelligence.
对于普京在窃听和攻击美国政治体系中所扮演的角色，美国情报部门了解的情况比披露的要多。
I surmise that the secret services know more than has been disclosed about Mr Putin’s role in hacking and attacking the American political system.
关于俄罗斯为什么把从美国民主党和希拉里那里窃取的情报当作武器加以利用，却不公开从美国共和党和特朗普那里窃取的情报，他们知道更多内情。
They know more about the specific mechanisms of Russia’s weaponising of information stolen from the Democrats and Mrs Clinton — and why the secrets stolen from the Republicans and Mr Trump stayed sheathed.
如果不披露这些信息，将会在华盛顿造成令人难以忍受的紧张局面。
If this information is not disclosed, it will create an unbearable tension in Washington.
而如果披露这些信息，人们的怀疑或直指特朗普大厦。
And if it is disclosed, suspicions could lead straight to Trump Tower.
这继而可能引发一场自理查德.尼克松(Richard Nixon)最后一次乘坐直升机从白宫草坪起飞以来最严重的宪政危机。
And that in turn could set off a constitutional crisis the likes of which we have not seen since Richard Nixon’s helicopter lifted off from the White House lawn for the last time.