The Fed’s disagreement on the timing of raising interest rates again

2016-04-11 「 2886 words / 6 minute 」
The Fed’s disagreement on the timing of raising interest rates again.jpg
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美联储(Fed)多名政策制定者在最近会议上警告全球动荡给美国经济带来“可观”风险,分歧严重的官员们在会上就多快进一步上调短期利率展开辩论。
Many Federal Reserve policymakers were warning of “appreciable” risks to the US economy from global turbulence at their latest meeting as the deeply divided group debated how soon to further increase short-term interest rates.
3月15日至16日的利率会议深深笼罩着这种担忧:如果美国意外触礁,这家央行有多大能力放松政策?在这次会议上,除一位委员以外,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)其他所有委员都投票赞成维持利率不变。
Worries about the central bank’s ability to ease policy if the US unexpectedly hit the buffers hung heavily over the March 15-16 meeting, at which all but one member of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep rates on hold.
3月会议的会议纪要显示,关于在去年12月加息后下一次何时收紧货币政策,政策制定者存在分歧,一些人提倡在4月就采取行动,另一些人则警告称这将表现出不必要的紧迫感。
The minutes to the March meeting revealed policymakers at loggerheads over when next to tighten policy following December’s rise, as some advocated a move as soon as April while others warned this would show undue urgency.
在这次会议上,美联储将其对2016年利率的预测下调至两次加息,每次加息25个基点,接近低迷的市场预期,同时美联储提出市场和海外较疲弱增长对美国前景构成的风险。
In the meeting the Fed scaled back its 2016 interest rate forecasts to two quarter-point rises, falling closer into line with subdued market expectations as it flagged up risks to the US outlook from markets and weaker growth abroad.
此后,美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)已强调央行在考虑下次何时加息的问题上应“谨慎前行”,这暗示,她无意匆忙进行第二次加息。
Since then Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, has stressed the central bank should “proceed cautiously” as it mulls when to next lift interest rates, suggesting she does not want to rush ahead with a second rate increase.
然而,公开声明表明美联储官员之间存在分歧,很多地区联储银行行长提出乐观观点。
Public statements have pointed to disagreements among officials, however, with a number of regional Fed presidents putting forward a bullish view.
会议纪要进一步显示出了这些分歧,例如,在美国是否近乎处于完全就业以及在多大程度上重视最近通胀上升以及通胀预期低迷等问题上,政策制定者有不同意见。
The minutes shed further light on these disagreements, with policymakers differing for example over whether the US is nearly at full employment and how much weight to put on a recent pickup in inflation and subdued inflation expectations.
几名美联储官员警告称,本月加息将“表明一种他们认为不适当的紧迫感”,另一些官员支持加息,强调劳动力市场和通胀前景日益走强。
Several warned that a move as soon as this month would “signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate”, even as others emphasised the strengthening labour market and inflation outlook as they argued for action.
会议纪要证实,对于美联储多名政策制定者而言,今年年初以来的金融市场动荡仍是一个值得积极关切的问题,似乎表明他们不急于加息。
The minutes confirm that for many Fed policymakers the financial market turmoil that accompanied the start of the year remains an active concern, suggesting they are in no hurry to lift rates.
会议纪要称:“几名与会者认为,导致今年早些时候全球金融状况严重恶化(尽管是暂时的)的基本因素尚未完全化解,因此构成下行风险。”
“Several participants expressed the view that the underlying factors abroad that led to a sharp, though temporary, deterioration in global financial conditions earlier this year had not been fully resolved and thus posed downside risks,” the minutes said.